11/25/2015

The Olympics are next year- and USA Basketball is looking pretty good after watching Paul George go off last night. Due to his injury last year during the World Cup (I think that is what they are calling that FIBA tournament) he is actually the only player guaranteed a roster spot so far. There was a camp over the summer and I believe most of the players invited fulfilled their obligation to in order to be considered for next year's Olympic team. Projecting next summer’s team is probably even more a fool’s errand that yesterday's forecasting of the NBA’s finalists, but let's talk about how Team USA should walk to a gold medal. 

With Paul George being in, and Lebron probably being pressured by the public to most likely play, those are two great starts. Carmelo should get one more run and has really played his best basketball as a Team USA member. Last summer both of the Splash Brothers were in the team, and I see no reason why they shouldn't be brought back. Clearly there will be a log jam at certain positions and Klay might seem like a stretch. But his defense on the perimeter is really helpful in the international game. The biggest logjam is most likely at point guard. Chris Paul has won a gold medal, and John Wall has not- both may not make the trip in 2016. Kyrie Irving may have been the best player in last year's tournament- I think he won the MVP. I think the final point guard goes to Westbrook, but I think I would prefer Wall. 

That's seven guys (of twelve)- and we haven't really talked Durant, Anthony Davis, or bigs. The question for Durant is health. If he makes it through this season (he has already sat a few games for a quad or hamstring injury) I think he will want to play in Rio. The bigs also get a bit logjamie. Last summer Boogie really dominated against some international teams, just playing volleyball at the rim (so did Kenneth Faried, but I don't think he's a real consideration this time around). The issue is wings are more valuable in the international game - so you don't carry too many bigs. I think a three man rotation of Anthony Davis, Boogie, and Andre Drummond makes Team USA. 

In the past, Andre Iguodala has played a key role as the lock down defender on the team. I don't think it him this time around, and although Paul George could fill this role, I think it why you take Kawhi Leonard. On teams like this - you can have a guy who doesn't need to contribute on offense- yeah I am saying this about a guy who is scoring over twenty points a game for an 11-3 team, but bear with me- and Kawhi will make every shaky ball handler look befuddled and will generate easy transition buckets. 

That's your twelve- the three point guards, three bigs and six wings. I am generally certain that the any combination of the twelve guys mentioned above (or toss in a few others that I didn't mention like say James Harden) - and any Team USA utilizing pace and space will walk to a good medal. 

11/24/2015

Apparently no one has really taken notice- but the Spurs, a preseason favorite to win the championship, are 11-3. That's a really good record (duh) but it is especially good for a team that is trying to integrate a new player who doesn’t exactly do what the Spurs have become known for over the past couple years. Basically, lost in the hoopla of the Warriors going undefeated to start the season with a small ball lineup they roll out out at the end of games, the Spurs are trying to go a bit more “traditional” and so far are being successful.

Currently, these two teams seem to be on a collision course to meet in the Western Conference finals next spring- although I think the Spurs are more likely to lose if they get the draw with Clippers as opposed to the Warriors. The two early season matchups between the Warriors and the Clippers would lead you to believe the Warriors would that be able to handle the Clippers in a seven game series, whereas the Spurs may struggle with the same matchup. Actually the past couple sentences may just be a whole lot of recency bias, but, I think, if the Spurs are trying to play the traditional two big lineup like the Clippers, the younger more athletic team should have the advantage. However, since the rest of Western Conference appears to have taken a step back, or seems to be on a lower tier than the Spurs and Warriors, let's predict in November that these are the teams that will meet to play Cleveland in the final. Granted, there are 60 some odd games remaining plus the playoffs before we get to that point, but I feel pretty comfortable that two of those three teams will be in the finals. I assume people in OKC just got really mad, but no one from there reads me, so I'm unconcerned about it.

I am going to assume that the Warriors beat the Lakers tonight (Note: yep, that happened) and therefore now have the best record to start a season. In addition, they had a historically great regular season last year as well, which they obviously followed up with a championship. I can’t believe that the rest of the league spent summer and fall pissing and moaning about how “lucky” the Warriors got- it was really just an exercise in poking the bear that so far has only paid dividends for one team - Golden State. Maybe it's the baby face that Curry has that lulls the rest of the league into thinking they can talk shit and he wouldn’t get all annoyed and come back better; or maybe it is because we have never seen this type of player before that the rest of the league wasn't sure how a player like him could actually improve off last year’s performance- that the rest of the league expected regression (he did hit the most 3’s in history last year) as opposed to improvement; or maybe the league unexpected this young-ish team to not handle success and party down all summer- so the league tried to take a gigantic dump on the Warriors championship in August and September. I have loved how this has worked out- a team that is basically missing it's coach is unleashing jump shot hell on every team they've come across, and the rest of us are the winners for it.

At the other end of the spectrum- I am thinking of going to see the opposite of Warriors - Spurs on Tuesday- the Lakers and the Sixers. Currently, StubHub has seats for like $25. Which is actually high for the Sixers, last week the Pacers were in town and tickets were going for $6 a pop. The Sixers - apparently pun intended- rewarded their fans by trying to put six men on the court at the same time, one for dollar they hypothetically spent. I guess that means the Lakers are still a bit of a draw, despite big in the cellar of the Western Conference, much like the Sixers are in the Eastern Conference. I assume that that everyone Lower Merion wants to get their last look at Kobe, thus driving the tickets to such ridiculously high prices.

(“Editor’s” Note: I realized yesterday that it is better to write at night, then sleep on it for a night, and do some proofreading in the morning, hopefully that will help improve the quality of the product.)

11/19/2015

So I was thinking about this as a mental exercise this morning, as it came up on a couple different podcasts- who would win between the current iteration of the Golden State Warriors and the 72 win Chicago Bulls. I think the consensus has somewhat held that the triangle offense has no place in the modern NBA (which is what the Bulls ran) and the 90’s style post game centric offenses definitely have  no place in the pace and space modern game. Therefore, it would stand to reason that the most chameleon, pace and space, small ball loving team of the modern age going against the anachronism of a different generation would be a rout from the opening tip. I believe in this case, the anachronism wins.

I would love to do this Zach Lowe style with all the cool .gifs to highlight the point, but I not that good nor am I going to hunt down old clips of the Bulls doing the things we know they can do. So you’ll just have to be happy with a very word based case as we take a plunge down this hypothetical rabbit hole.

The Warriors are currently winning by having Steph Curry dominate, killing teams with small ball, and playing a suffocating defense. It is super helpful that Steph can shoot from where defenses typically don’t defend. Another fun thing they do is play their super small lineup of Draymond Green at the five just to play your big man off the floor. Their defense is also first rate, with only really Steph being not a really an above average defender.

Unfortunately, I think the Bulls would be able to the combat exactly what the Warriors love to do to teams.  As great as Iguodala played against Lebron last Finals, I have serious doubts about his ability to do the same to Jordan. Lebron was hampered by not being used to taking over games with his scoring. Michael Jordan had no such reservations. In addition, every time the Warriors would try to go super small and “switch everything” - it would be open season on the rim for Jordan and Pippen.

On the defensive end, the real issue the Warriors face is that the Bulls defensively loved to shut down point guards. It is one of the tenets of the triangle offense - since there really isn’t a “primary” ball handler, the Bulls didn’t have a focus point as soon as they crossed half court. The Bulls most likely pick up Curry almost immediately, and mark him with Jordan. I am sure the Warriors would move Curry off the ball and try him run him through every screen action you can dream of. But the true advantage of Curry is what he creates off the dribble, not turning him into just another two guard.

I don’t want to distill the argument solely down just saying Jordan, but he and Pippen are the crux of the argument. What they could do at both ends of the floor was amazing, and surrounding them with Kerr, Rodman, Kukoc, and whoever else allowed them to whatever they wanted on the basketball court.

There are tons of little hypotheticals you could dream up from this matchup- like do the Bulls break out their own super small lineup with Rodman at the five- assuming that the he could still get rebounds at the defensive end? Who does Klay guard? Can Coach Steve Kerr and sharpshooter Steve Kerr occupy the same area without the world coming to an end?

I am sure ever aging champ feels their team was the best ever, like Ron Harper clearly does. But I think those Bulls teams still stand up even in the modern era of the NBA. They played how they played to win in their era, but I fairly certain that they would have had the flexibility to win in any era.